Win Rate Is Not the Whole Story
Win rate feels like the obvious measure of a good trader: what percentage of your trades win? But on its own it is one of the most misleading numbers in trading. A 70% win rate can lose money, and a 35% win rate can be highly profitable. Here is why — and what to read alongside it.
What win rate is
Win rate is the share of your closed trades that finished in profit: winning trades divided by total trades. A 55% win rate means 55 of every 100 trades won. Simple — and incomplete, because it says nothing about how big the wins and losses were.
Why win rate alone misleads
What actually determines profit is win rate combined with the size of your average win versus your average loss (your reward-to-risk). Consider two traders:
| Trader A | Trader B | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 70% | 35% |
| Average win | $50 | $300 |
| Average loss | $150 | $100 |
| Result per 100 trades | (70×$50) − (30×$150) = −$1,000 | (35×$300) − (65×$100) = +$4,000 |
Trader A wins twice as often and still loses money, because the losses are far bigger than the wins. Trader B loses most of the time and is highly profitable. Win rate alone would have told you the exact opposite of the truth.
The number that ties it together: expectancy
Expectancy is the average amount you can expect to make per trade, and it folds win rate and trade size into one figure:
Expectancy = (Win rate × Average win) − (Loss rate × Average loss)
A positive expectancy means the strategy makes money over time; a negative one means it bleeds, no matter how good the win rate looks. This is the lens that makes win rate useful instead of deceptive.
What to pair win rate with
- Average win vs average loss — your reward-to-risk; the other half of the equation.
- Profit factor — total dollars won per dollar lost.
- Maximum drawdown — whether you can survive the losing runs a low win rate inevitably brings.
- Expectancy — the single figure that says whether the whole thing is positive.
How TradingJournal shows it
TradingJournal calculates win rate from your closed trades on a net profit and loss basis, and presents it next to your average win and loss, profit factor and drawdown — so you see win rate in the context that makes it meaningful, never in isolation.
See win rate in context
Import your MT4/MT5 history and get win rate alongside the metrics that actually decide whether you are profitable — free.
Get started freeRelated: Profit Factor Explained · Maximum Drawdown Explained